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Global Air Freight Rates Are Falling: How Should Businesses Respond?

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Amid ongoing global trade uncertainty, air freight rates are showing a slight downward trend, presenting both opportunities and challenges for import-export businesses. According to Xeneta’s May 2025 report—a leading global freight rate data platform—the average global air freight rate currently stands at USD 2.44 per kilogram, representing a 4% decrease year-over-year. This marks the first decline in air cargo rates in over a year, despite a 6% increase in cargo volumes, signaling a growing imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

Dịch vụ vận tải đường hàng không uy tín, chuyên nghiệp - TSL

Table of contents

Market Trend: Rates Declining, Demand Rising—But Only in the Short Term

The China–U.S. air freight route has experienced the most notable volatility. After hitting a low in mid-May, rates unexpectedly surged to USD 4.31/kg on June 1, largely driven by frontloading activity ahead of the expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption. However, experts caution that this is likely a temporary trend, and rates may continue to decline as the market stabilizes and new global trade agreements are reached.

How Should Businesses Prepare for Freight Rate Volatility?

According to Niall van de Wouw, Head of Air Freight at Xeneta, growing uncertainty among carriers and shippers is placing downward pressure on rates. The U.S. termination of the “de minimis” tariff exemption in May has significantly reduced the volume of low-value goods from China and Hong Kong entering the U.S., resulting in excess air freight capacity and prompting airlines to adjust their flight schedules.

At the same time, some businesses have started shifting their origin points to countries with more favorable tariff structures, making the air cargo market more unpredictable than ever.

Hong Kong Air Cargo gets green light for new routes - Payload Asia

Cargo being loaded onto an aircraft in Hong Kong for transport.

Air vs. Ocean Freight: Comparing to Optimize Logistics Costs

It’s not just air freight—ocean shipping is also experiencing similar fluctuations, driven by a wave of frontloading at major ports like Los Angeles, as shippers rush to move goods ahead of potential tariff changes. However, each mode of transportation comes with its own advantages and limitations:

Criteria

Air Freight

Ocean Freight

 Transit Time 

 Fast (1–5 days)

 Medium to long (10–30 days)

 Cost

 Higher, more volatile

 Lower, more stable

 Best for

 High-value, time-sensitive goods 

 Bulky, large-volume shipments

 Flexibility

 High during peak seasons

 Susceptible to port congestion and weather 

 

Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp. recommends that businesses regularly monitor pricing trends and adopt a hybrid approach—combining both air and ocean freight—to optimize operations and costs.

Specialized Freight Consulting with Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp.

With nearly 20 years of experience in international logistics, Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp. is more than just a carrier—it is a strategic partner providing expert freight consulting for hundreds of Vietnamese and international businesses.

We Offer:

✅ Real-time quotations for ocean and air freight

✅ Route and transport method consulting tailored to your product and target market

LCL consolidation support and efficient routing coordination

✅ End-to-end solutions covering international shipping, customs clearance, and final delivery

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For more information, please contact Dolphin Sea Air.

Why Choose Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp.?

  • Up-to-date market insights: We closely monitor market trends to deliver the most competitive and timely freight quotes.
  • Service flexibility: From full-container loads (FCL) and less-than-container loads (LCL) to urgent air shipments—we cover it all.
  • Cost optimization, maximum efficiency: Our team of experts analyzes routes, rates, and delivery timelines to provide the most cost-effective logistics solutions.

Need Freight Rate Consulting for Your Upcoming Shipment?

Let Dolphin support you from the initial planning stage all the way to final delivery. In today’s highly volatile freight market, making the right logistics decision can lead to significant cost savings and help you maintain a competitive edge in your industry.

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