Asia-US freight rates surge: Nearing pandemic-era peaks!

Recent market analyses from Drewry, Xeneta and Dynamar indicate that spot container freight rates on the Transpacific trade lane are likely to remain on an upward trend in the short term, particularly through late September and early October.

Asia–US Container Freight Rates Continue to Rise Ahead of Golden Week

China’s Golden Week holiday, beginning on October 1, typically drives a temporary increase in shipping demand as businesses accelerate export shipments before factories and logistics operations slow down during the holiday period.

According to Drewry, in mid-September, spot freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased by 5% week-on-week to approximately USD 7,712 per FEU. Meanwhile, rates from Shanghai to New York rose 7% to around USD 10,394 per FEU.

Xeneta has also reported that freight rates from the Far East to the US are moving closer to the levels seen during the peak of the COVID-19 supply chain disruption.

Current rates to the US West Coast are approximately 18% below their pandemic-era peak, while rates to the US East Coast are around 11% below their historical high. This indicates that the market remains highly sensitive to further changes in demand and available capacity.

Why Are Container Freight Rates Increasing?

The current increase in Asia–US ocean freight rates is not driven by a single factor. Instead, several supply chain pressures are occurring simultaneously.

• Rising Shipping Demand Ahead of Golden Week

Exporters are bringing shipments forward ahead of the Golden Week holiday to reduce the risk of production and delivery delays.

As booking volumes increase within a relatively short period, demand for container equipment and vessel space also rises, putting upward pressure on spot freight rates.

• Carriers Continue to Manage Capacity

Shipping lines are actively adjusting capacity across individual services to maintain a balance between supply and demand.

Drewry recorded nine blank sailings for the following week, compared with eight in the previous week.

Meanwhile, Xeneta reported that available capacity from the Far East to the US East Coast in September was approximately 6–7% higher than in August.

These developments highlight how carriers are continuing to adjust their network capacity in response to changing market conditions.

• Port Congestion and Operational Disruptions in China

Severe weather and storms in China continue to disrupt port operations.

Vessel waiting times and operational delays can affect not only individual sailing schedules but also the turnaround time of vessels and containers. When one part of the supply chain is delayed, the impact can spread to subsequent vessels, ports and services.

According to recent market analyses, cargo volumes waiting at several major Chinese gateways remain elevated, while delays may continue for several days depending on port conditions.

• Geopolitical Uncertainty Adds Further Pressure

Geopolitical developments across several regions are prompting shipping lines to continuously review and adjust their vessel routes.

Changes to routing, transit times or operational capacity can directly affect the actual supply of available shipping capacity on specific trade lanes.

As a result, the global ocean freight market has become increasingly difficult to forecast compared with more stable periods.

Could Asia–US Freight Rates Rise Further in Early October?

According to current market assessments, another increase in container freight rates in early October remains possible, particularly if demand ahead of Golden Week remains strong.

However, the market outlook following Golden Week will depend on several factors, including:

• The sustainability of export demand from Asia.
• Carrier capacity management strategies.
• The speed of cargo clearance and port recovery.
• Geopolitical developments and changes in vessel routing.
• US trade policies and costs associated with ocean transportation.
• The potential for further congestion at major US gateway ports.

If supply chain disruptions continue, the market could remain at elevated freight rate levels for longer than initially expected.

What Should Importers and Exporters Do Amid Freight Rate Volatility?

When ocean freight rates are changing rapidly, simply selecting the lowest freight quote at the time of booking may not necessarily result in the lowest overall logistics cost.

Businesses should develop shipping strategies based on total logistics costs and supply chain reliability, rather than focusing solely on the ocean freight component.

Book Shipments Early

For cargo that needs to arrive before or around the Golden Week period, early planning and securing vessel space can help reduce the risk of container shortages, limited vessel space and schedule disruptions.

Consider Alternative Ports of Destination

Depending on the final delivery location, businesses can evaluate options between the US West Coast and US East Coast, as well as combinations of ocean freight and inland transportation, to identify a more cost-efficient solution.

Compare Multiple Routing Options

The same origin and destination may offer several combinations of shipping lines, sailing schedules, transshipment hubs, destination ports and inland transportation.

Comparing the entire transportation route can help businesses avoid situations where a low ocean freight rate is offset by higher inland transportation or other logistics costs.

Monitor Surcharges and Transit Times

During periods of market volatility, factors such as congestion surcharges, detention and demurrage, transit times and vessel schedules can have a significant impact on the final logistics cost.

Prepare Contingency Plans

For time-sensitive or high-value shipments, businesses should consider alternative transportation options in case of vessel delays, port congestion or unexpected changes to sailing schedules.

Dolphin – Your Partner for Optimized International Freight Solutions

As ocean freight rates continue to fluctuate, an effective logistics solution is not simply about finding the lowest freight rate. It requires a balance between cost, transit time, reliability and control over potential additional charges.

With expertise in ocean freight, air freight, trucking, customs clearance and international logistics, Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp supports businesses in developing transportation solutions tailored to their cargo, markets and delivery requirements.

Dolphin supports your logistics needs with:

• International shipping and routing consultation
• Comparison of shipping lines, sailing schedules and port options
• Ocean Freight & Inland Transportation solutions
• Customs clearance and domestic transportation support
• Shipment tracking and schedule updates
• Logistics cost optimization based on individual shipment requirements

If your business is planning shipments from Asia to the US before or after Golden Week, contact Dolphin for professional advice on suitable shipping solutions and optimized logistics costs for your cargo.

Dolphin Sea Air Services Corp continuously monitors developments in the global shipping and logistics markets, helping businesses select the right transportation solutions, manage logistics costs, and optimize overall supply chain efficiency.

• Hotline: 1900 986813
• Website: www.dolphinseaair.com
• Email: info@dolphinseaair.com

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